Education Policy Research and Advocacy Organization, Africa Education Watch (Eduwatch) has warned that the Free SHS/TVET system may struggle to place all qualified students because available school capacity may not match rising demand.
In its Volume 37 Education Alert Policy Brief, the organisation projects that while about 620,000 candidates sat for the 2025 BECE, an estimated 607,000 are likely to qualify for placement, setting the stage for a possible shortfall of roughly 72,000 students if no immediate interventions are made.
It cautions that “declining transition efficiency… could generate an effective placement deficit of approximately 72,000 qualified candidates if immediate policy interventions are not undertaken.”
According to the brief, the emerging pressure is being driven by multiple structural factors, including reduced intake capacity linked to the phased rollback of Double Track operations in selected schools, mismatches between available vacancies and student demand, and geographic barriers affecting placement distribution.
It also points to limited absorption gains from ongoing private SHS integration efforts as a contributing factor to the widening gap between qualified candidates and available school spaces.
